NATIONAL RESEARCH PROGRAM PROJECT TITLE: Modeling and Uncertainty of Complex Ground-Water Systems Mary C. Hill, Project Chief, Boulder, Colorado "The methods of science depend on our attempts to describe the world with simple theories. Theories that are complex become unstable, even if they happen to be true. Science may be described as the art of oversimplification: the art of discerning what we may with advantage omit." Popper, 1982, The Open Universe: Hutchinson, London, UK. 185p. Project Description Affiliates Textbook: Effective Groundwater Model Calibration, with Analysis of Data, Sensitivities, Predictions, and Uncertainty, by Mary C. Hill and Claire R. Tiedeman. Wiley and Sons, publisher Ideas - Fourteen guidelines for effective model calibration - Better sensitivity analysis - The 30-minute forward execution-time suggestion Upcoming Events: - Classes - Conferences - Presentations - Professional Meetings Curriculum Vitae New for MODFLOW-2005: - Local grid refinement for steady-state and transient simulations Accessibility|FOIA|Privacy|Policies and Notices U.S. Department of the Interior | U.S. Geological Survey URL: http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/projects/GW_ModUncert/index.shtml Page Contact Information: Mary C. Hill Page Last Modified: December 10, 2007